New Delhi, (The Telegraph): The Congress's strength in the Rajya Sabha is set to come down significantly this year even as the ruling BJP-led coalition would remain short of majority.
In addition to the five nominated members whose support it has enjoyed on most issues, 20 Congress members will retire. The party does not have the strength in the Assemblies to reclaim these seats and its tally could come down by at least seven. The Congress has 67 MPs in the 245-member Rajya Sabha. The BJP is far behind with 48.
More than the numerical depletion, what is worrying the Congress is the stature of the members whose terms are ending. While its most vocal deputy leader, Anand Sharma, is scheduled to retire in July, veteran A.K. Antony's term ends in April. Other heavyweights like Ambika Soni, Mohsina Kidwai, Jairam Ramesh, Ashwini Kumar, Oscar Fernandes, Hanumantha Rao and Satish Sharma are also on their way out.
Among the nominated members, Mani Shankar Aiyar, Javed Akhtar, Bhalchand Mungekar, Mrinal Miri and B. Jayashree will retire in March. While two members - Ashok Ganguly and H.K. Dua - retired last year, the terms of other nominated MPs like Sachin Tendulkar, Rekha, Anu Aga, K. Parasaran and K.T.S. Tulsi end in 2018. The Narendra Modi government will straightaway gain seven votes in the upper House by nominating new members of their ideological leaning.
The Congress faces a crisis because Sharma, nominated from Rajasthan last time, cannot be re-elected as the ruling BJP has the strength to win all four seats that will fall vacant in the state's quota. Sharma can be accommodated from home state Himachal Pradesh, from where there will be one vacancy. The Congress can snatch that seat from the BJP but chief minister Virbhadra Singh, who is said to have strained relations with the MP, has to agree to his candidature.
Antony can return from Kerala but Ramesh may have to sit out of Parliament as the Congress does not have the strength to push any candidate from Andhra and Telangana. Ramesh, nominated from Andhra last time, would hope to be accommodated from some other state but stalwarts like P. Chidambaram and Kapil Sibal are already on the waitlist. Party sources say it is unlikely Sonia Gandhi or Rahul will prefer Ramesh over Chidambaram and Sibal.
Karnataka, where the Congress has the numbers to win seats, will have four vacancies but chief minister Siddaramaiah is said to be reluctant to nominate outsiders. Sources say it will be Chidambaram alone for whom an exception can be made.
Sibal would have fancied his chances from Bihar, from where there will be five vacancies, but the ruling JDU and RJD have their hands tied.
While the BJP can bag one seat from Bihar, the JDU can win only two. The JDU has a tough choice as party president Sharad Yadav, Nitish Kumar confidant Ramchandra Prasad Singh and veteran K.C. Tyagi are retiring and two of these seats are likely to be retained.
The fourth to retire, Pawan Verma, may have to be sacrificed and, most probably, Tyagi too. The remaining two seats will go to the RJD; if Lalu Prasad insists on both wife Rabri Devi and daughter Misa Bharti, none else stands a chance. If Lalu Prasad opts for one of the two, others in his party, like Raghuvansh Prasad Singh, would stake their claim.The Congress, with 27 MLAs in Bihar, could have pushed one candidate with the help of RJD-JDU surplus votes but the two parties are unlikely to spare a seat at the expense of their own leaders. These parties may help a Congress candidate in the next round.
In Uttar Pradesh, from where 11 seats fall vacant, the Congress is hoping to get one with support from the BSP, but that remains uncertain.
From Maharashtra, where four seats will fall vacant, the Congress has the strength to retain only one. Veterans Sushil Kumar Shinde, Gurudas Kamat, Mukul Wasnik and Vilas Muttemwar are already in line.
From Punjab, the Congress will be able to reclaim two seats out of the seven retiring leaders but any outsider is unlikely to find favour in the state headed for polls next year.
Two leaders elected from Assam retire this year but there seems little possibility of accommodating outsiders as Manmohan Singh and Sanjay Singh already occupy that space. Local leaders are likely to replace the retiring MPs, Pankaj Bora and Naznin Faruqee.
From Jharkhand, Congress MP Dhiraj Sahu will retire and much lobbying and manoeuvring will be required to retain the seat. In Uttarakhand, the Congress could snatch the lone seat falling vacant with the exit of a BJP member.
